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July 19, 2006

Protecting Yourself from Myths and Misconceptions

A little learning is a dangerous thing; 
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
And drinking largely sobers us again.
Alexander Pope: Essay on Criticism. Part ii. Line 15.

Or, if you prefer the vernacular,

It ain't what a man knows that gets him in trouble, it's what he thinks he knows, but just ain't so.   (Will Rogers)

Here are some links to a few excellent lists of common fallacies -- things everyone "thinks he knows" that "just ain't so".  Being ambivalent on these topics is OK -- but the deadly one-two punch of (1) thinking you're an expert, and (2) acting woth conviction on your false expertise, can definitely get you into trouble!

  1. Gas Saving Myths
  2. Tornado Safety Myths
  3. Myths about Health (emphasizing women's health)
  4. Science Myths in K-6 Textbooks and Popular Culture (see also the Packard Foundation Report)
  5. Stock Market Myths (lots of competing lists; this is a reasonably thought-out one.)

I'll add more as the week goes on.

July 06, 2006

How to Invest at a Discount, Part 1

Berkshire Hathaway is the fabled kingdom of value investments, and famed investor Warren Buffett is its monarch; he manages (or supervises) an enormous portfolio of public and private companies including GEICO, Fruit of the Loom, and Dairy Queen.  It's hardly a coincidence that he's been able to accumulate $44+ billion to put to work in the Gates Foundation;  he's d*mn talented at allocating capital. 

Berkshire isn't cheap, however; the stock has never split, and a class "A" share (NYSE:  BRK.A) sells for a lofty $90,000 or so.  A class "B" share (NYSE:  BRK.B), which is 1/30 as valuable and has slightly different voting rights, goes for a mere $3,000.   This is out of reach of most small investors.   The other problem is that, even if you scrape together $90K for an "A" share or $3K for a "B" share, you're still paying retail:  you pay 100% of the market value when you buy. 

If you loved paying retail, you wouldn't be reading this.    You're asking yourself, "Mycroft, I know your methods.  Is there a buy-one-get-one-free coupon for Berkshire Hathaway stock?   Or a credit card that gives a 5% rebate on Berkshire Hathaway purchases?"

Sadly, no.   There IS  a way to get Buffett at a discount, however -- by purchasing shares of a closed-end mutual fund that invests in Berkshire Hathaway. 

Unlike an open-end mutual fund (which is the format that most people are familiar with), closed-end funds trade like stocks; you buy from a seller, using a broker, and sell the same way -- just as if you were buying IBM.  (See Wikipedia for a longer explanation.)

Now for the rub:  because the price of the fund is determined by supply and demand for the fund itself, not just by supply-and-demand for the stocks it holds, the fund's price may be different from it's net asset value (NAV).  Frequently, closed-end funds trade at a discount to their NAV.  Thus, it's possible to buy $1 worth of assets for $0.90 or less.  [The reason why these discounts persist is a large area of research in finance, despite evidence that purchasing at a discount beats the S&P 500 over time by 4-5% annually -- as shown by Thompson (1978), Anderson (1986), and Brauer (1988).]

Which brings us to our main story.  Once upon a time, there was a little closed-end mutual fund called Boulder Total Return (NYSE: BTF).  Several years ago, the managers apparently realized that Warren Buffett was better at picking stocks than they were.  (This realization may seem obvious, but it shows tremendous self-awareness and modesty, two qualities sorely lacking in many finance professionals!)  They invested about 1/3 of their portfolio directly into Berkshire Hathaway, and even more into Berkshire-like stocks such as Wesco Financial. 

The market HATED this idea.  "Who are these guys, anyhow, who are confessing that this Omaha fella is better than they are?  And why are they charging us a management fee while confessing that they don't know how to pick stocks?"   Investors stampeded out of the fund, demand for the fund plummeted, and the fund's price dipped well below Net Asset Value.

The funny thing is that, once these investors had rushed for the exits, the fund was actually very attractive to new investors -- and, in Mycroft's opinion, remains so today.  The fund's holdings seem sensible, and getting Warren Buffett at a 15% discount is nothing to sneeze at as a buy-and-hold opportunity. 

Think about it.  You can see BTF's holdings (updated quarterly) and discount (updated weekly) at www.boulderfunds.net.

Disclaimer:  Mycroft owns shares of the Boulder Total Return Fund and periodically purchases more.  This information is intended as a suggestion for your consideration, not advice.  Please do your own due diligence before investing. 

May 05, 2006

The Equity Premium Puzzle

Why are investors so afraid of risk?  Sure, it's possible to lose your shirt (and a posterior portion of your anatomy) in the stock market, but don't the rewards outweigh the danger?

A famous economic study on the equity premium puzzle showed that stocks outperform bonds by so much (on average 6% per year) that you would think that investors would choose more stocks than they do.  To quote Wikipedia's version of the common (and ludicrously conservative) tendency, "To quantify the level of risk aversion implied, investors would have to be indifferent between a bet with a 50 percent chance of $50,000 or $100,000 and a certain payoff of $51,209." 

Why are people so averse to taking small risks that they would do the equivalent of "cashing out" for $1,209 over their WORST possible outcome, forgoing a 50% chance of winning $50K?  And (putting on my Applied Evil Genius hat) how can we turn other people's risk extreme aversion to our own advantage?